DHL eCommerce surveyed 29,000 online shoppers and 5,800 e-commerce businesses across 29 countries and found sellers concentrated on the channels buyers use least, with delivery terms deciding more purchases than discounts and paid social influencing barely a third of shoppers.

DHL eCommerce has published the fifth edition of its annual E-Commerce Trends Report, a 78-page study that sets shopper responses against business responses on the same questions. The document carries no cover date; DHL states figures are correct at the time of publishing, and lists the accompanying podcast episode with applied futurist Tom Cheesewright and chief executive Pablo Ciano as available from August 2026.

The fieldwork is dated precisely. According to DHL, the shopper and business surveys ran in parallel, though not simultaneously in every country, between December 15, 2025 and February 11, 2026. Shoppers answered more than 50 questions across 29 countries at 1,000 respondents per market, and had to confirm an online purchase in the previous three months. Grocery shopping, tickets and flights were excluded. Businesses answered a comparable set across 28 countries, with Morocco dropped for insufficient business sample.

That symmetry is what makes the data useful outside a logistics context. The study reports shopper and business figures side by side, and the distance between the two lines marks where commercial effort is aimed at demand that is not there.

The channels sellers occupy are not the channels buyers use

Businesses in the sample sell across an average of three platforms: their own website at 65%, social media at 63%, marketplaces at 54%, shoppable ads at 43%, their own app at 38%, AI-powered chat at 35%, voice at 26% and product subscriptions at 24%.

Shoppers describe themselves differently, and most fit more than one profile - four on average. Convenience shoppers account for 92% of the sample and deal seekers for 90%. App-first shoppers, who shop mainly through retailer or marketplace apps, reach 72%, global shoppers 70% and eco shoppers 67%. Those who have bought from shoppable ads online or on television reach 46%, social shoppers 45%, AI-assisted shoppers 38% and hands-free shoppers 23%.

Two mismatches stand out. The first is the app gap: 72% of shoppers are app-first, yet only 38% of businesses offer browsing and buying through their own app, and in Latin America the shopper figure rises to 85%. The second is social. According to DHL, 63% of businesses sell through social platforms while 45% of shoppers buy through them, a spread that inverts in Asia Pacific, where 66% of shoppers do buy through social channels.

Platform detail sharpens the picture. Globally, 63% of shoppers report having purchased through Facebook against 78% of businesses selling there, and on Instagram the split is 48% against 73%. On TikTok it is 50% against 53%, the closest alignment of any major platform, while YouTube sits at 29% against 48% and Snapchat at 11% against 21%.

Geography scrambles those averages. TikTok reaches 96% of Malaysian and 93% of Thai shoppers, YouTube 71% of Indian shoppers against 41% in the United States, and Facebook 86% in Nigeria and Morocco. Older cohorts lean toward Facebook while Gen Z splits between Instagram and TikTok, with 58% reporting a TikTok purchase - consistent with TikTok Shop's first year in Germany, where Gen X nonetheless held 37% of value share.

The content data is the sharpest finding for media buyers. DHL asked shoppers which types of social content influence their purchasing decisions, and businesses which types they produce to drive sales. Discounts and offers are the one point of agreement, at 63% of shoppers against 68% of businesses. Everything else diverges. Sponsored or paid ads and promoted posts are produced by 67% of businesses but cited as influential by 37% of shoppers, a 30-point spread. Influencer partnerships run 57% against 34%. Shoppable posts run 50% against 40%. User-generated content runs 47% against 42%, the tightest fit in the set, and how-to and product demonstrations are the only format shoppers rate above business output, at 36% against 31%.

According to DHL, 76% of marketplace sellers believe a social media profile is the best way to acquire new customers, and 70% of subscription sellers work with influencers. Forward expectations widen the gap rather than closing it. Asked where they expect to browse and buy more over the next five years, 24% of shoppers name social media; asked how customer behaviour will change, 64% of businesses name it. On shoppable ads the split is 17% against 51%, on AI-powered chat 23% against 59% and on apps 32% against 55%.

Delivery, not discounting, closes the sale

Roughly a quarter of shoppers say they never abandon a basket. Among the rest, the leading trigger is not price.

Delivery offering has caused 67% of shoppers to abandon an online purchase, while 52% of businesses recognise it as a reason. Products being out of stock accounts for 65% against 61%, unexpected customs or tax charges 63% against 45%, a preferred payment method not being accepted 62% against 45%, returns offering 58% against 46% and an invalid discount code 57% against 39%.

Businesses underestimate softer friction. A complicated checkout is cited by 54% of shoppers and 31% of businesses, a slow site 51% against 36% and missing security badges 48% against 31%. Shoppers name the payment page as the most common drop-off point at 32%, then shipping options at 29%.

Where businesses invest to fix this, the ranking inverts shopper preference. Conversion tactics lead with discounts at 58%, then free delivery at 56% and free returns at 44%. Asked what would most have encouraged completion, shoppers put free shipping first at 41%, faster delivery at 20% and more payment options at 17%.

Seven in ten shoppers say they will abandon a cart if the delivery or returns options they want are absent at checkout, and the same proportion will not shop with a brand whose delivery provider they do not trust. Nine in ten businesses say the delivery and returns offering matters to securing online sales, and 88% say free delivery and returns improves sales. Yet 47% offer delivery free, 18% charge and 35% run a mix; among business-to-business and Asia Pacific sellers, 57% build logistics costs into product pricing to create the perception of free.

The cart findings sit close to independent research. An RTB House study of US shoppers found 49% delay a purchase to hunt for a better price, framing abandonment as active comparison rather than lost intent, while Adobe research found 86% of surveyed US consumers make at least one unplanned online purchase per month. DHL supplies the terms on which those impulses convert.

Payments carry a 17-point perception gap

Shoppers in the sample use four payment methods on average. Businesses offer seven. According to DHL, 62% of shoppers will abandon a purchase when a preferred method is unavailable, while 45% of businesses treat this as a key driver, and only 17% say more options would have encouraged completion.

Credit and debit cards remain dominant at 76% shopper use against 88% business acceptance, led by Visa at 64%. Digital wallets run 58% against 74%, buy now, pay later 28% against 48%, and cards stored with a merchant 27% against 54%. Cryptocurrency is the outlier at 13% against 26%.

AI adoption splits by region, not only by generation

According to the report, 38% of shoppers and 35% of businesses use AI-powered chat or virtual assistants to buy and sell. The business figure appears as 36% on the DHL campaign page for the same study, a discrepancy the source material does not reconcile.

Frequency data shows 31% of shoppers globally use AI chat tools every time they shop or often, and 33% never. Gen Z runs 43% frequent use against 13% for Baby Boomers. Adoption concentrates in India at 59%, the UAE at 51% and China at 47%. On the business side, 67% use some form of AI, rising to 91% in the UAE, and 70% expect usage to increase over five years.

Resistance is specific rather than general. Despite 23% of shoppers identifying as hands-free shoppers, 41% would avoid voice-enabled search and 38% automated reordering. Among businesses, 28% would not want voice search while 26% already offer it. Privacy, trust and security lead the concern list for both sides at 58% and 60%. Shoppers are more sensitive to pushy upselling, at 40% against 28%; businesses worry more about slow chatbots, at 46% against 32%.

Willingness to delegate purchasing divides by region. Asked how likely they are to let AI make shopping decisions or purchases within five years, 29% of shoppers globally answer very or somewhat likely: Sub-Saharan Africa reaches 56% and the Middle East and North Africa 47%, against 18% in Europe, which also posts the highest outright rejection at 42%.

Those numbers sit alongside wider evidence on AI mediation. Yelp research found only 15% of users trust AI search results outright, Reddit found half of US shoppers verify AI product recommendations before buying, and Usercentrics linked AI data concerns to cancelled purchases and degraded ad platform signals.

Cross-border demand rises while localisation lags

International purchasing reached 70% of shoppers, up 10 percentage points from 60% in the 2025 edition, with 45% buying across borders more than once a month. Gen Z and Millennials both hit 53%, and Thailand leads weekly international shopping at 34%.

On the supply side, 61% of businesses sell across borders and more than three in ten orders ship internationally. China is the leading destination shoppers buy from at 59%, then the USA at 32% and Germany at 23%. Proximity dominates in Europe: 77% of Austrian and 72% of Swiss shoppers buy from Germany.

Localisation has not kept pace. According to DHL, 63% of businesses offer their store in local languages and currencies for all countries served, 33% for some and 4% for none, while 22% of Canadian, 21% of US and 18% of UK business-to-consumer sellers do not localise at all.

The barriers are logistical. High delivery costs or long delivery times deter 45% of shoppers, fear of fraud another 45% and customs and duties 41%. Free delivery would encourage 57% to buy from a retailer in another country over five years.

One figure conflicts across DHL's own materials: the report states that 29% of businesses not yet selling across borders plan to prioritise cross-border capabilities within 12 months, while the campaign page for the same study gives 25%.

That reading arrives against a shifting European backdrop. The EU ended its 150 euro duty exemption on July 1, 2026, applying a flat 3 euro charge per item, and Google Shopping data covering roughly 500 European advertisers showed Temu's auction presence halving since March while SHEIN approached a full exit.

Marketplaces hold as challengers outrun seller focus

Marketplace usage is the most stable expectation in the study: 82% of shoppers expect to use marketplaces the same amount or more over five years, and 90% of businesses anticipate growth or stability there.

Amazon leads on both sides at 59% shopper use and 72% business selling. Challenger platforms invert that relationship: Temu reaches 41% of shoppers against 18% of businesses and Shein 32% against 19%, while eBay runs 12% against 28%. NIQ research published on July 30, 2026 tracked related fragmentation in European fashion, where online growth slowed to 3% as resale gained ground.

Consumer-to-consumer selling has moved into the mainstream. More than one in two shoppers have sold something through an online marketplace, and 59% globally send those items through collection points, parcel lockers or parcel shops.

Seasonal promotions run on a trust gap

Seasonal calendars produce the widest single divergence. Christmas and New Year purchases were made by 66% of shoppers in the previous 12 months, while 90% of businesses run promotions then. Black Friday and Cyber Monday run 41% against 84%, and Valentine's Day 28% against 74%.

Trust is where the asymmetry becomes measurable. According to DHL, 54% of shoppers completely or mostly trust the offers and prices retailers publish during seasonal holidays, while 77% of businesses believe shoppers trust them. Trust declines with age, from 60% among Millennials and Gen Z to 42% among Baby Boomers, and falls to 39% in the Netherlands against 77% in India. Smaller businesses read the market more accurately: just over half believe shoppers trust seasonal discounts, compared with more than 80% of larger companies.

Deal seekers, the group most exposed to promotional messaging, are the least persuaded: 13% do not trust seasonal offers, the highest share of any shopper group, and 58% will abandon a basket if a discount code fails. Looking ahead, 18% of shoppers expect to buy more during seasonal holidays over five years, while 45% of businesses expect seasonal sales to increase.

"The information gap between retailer and customer has been shrinking from the dawn of the digital age and now it has reversed: consumers are often better informed about product quality, pricing, and offers than the seller," Cheesewright said.

Why this matters for the marketing community

The report unsettles assumptions underneath channel planning. Paid social and influencer partnerships are produced by 67% and 57% of businesses but register with 37% and 34% of shoppers, while product demonstrations and user-generated content perform close to parity at far lower production emphasis.

The abandonment data relocates the conversion problem from creative to fulfilment terms. Delivery offering outranks every other cause at 67%, free shipping is the strongest single completion motivator at 41%, and seven in ten shoppers walk when delivery and returns options fall short. Performance and retail media campaigns optimised into a checkout that fails on shipping terms are buying traffic into a leak - including in formats where the ad itself is the checkout, such as the remote-enabled add-to-cart units Samsung Ads and Amazon Ads activated on Samsung TV Plus in June 2026.

The AI figures cut against a straight adoption narrative. Business expectation of AI-mediated shopping runs at 59% against 23% of shoppers, and European shoppers reject AI-driven purchasing at 42%. Kantar identified AI agents mediating purchase decisions as a defining 2026 trend; the DHL regional splits indicate that timeline varies widely by market.

The app and localisation numbers point at owned infrastructure rather than media. A 34-point app gap, and roughly one in five sellers in major English-language markets not localising currency or language, describe demand arriving at storefronts built for someone else.

"In a future where technology is the great equalizer, there is a challenge of being 'too' frictionless. Build in some moments of connection, building brand and trust, or customers will slip through your fingers just as easily as they slip through the shopping process," Cheesewright said.

Ciano set out the commercial reading in the report's closing pages. "Consumer expectations are rising across every dimension - including where and who they buy from, how those orders are delivered and even the growing role of AI in supporting or even making shopping decisions on their behalf. For businesses, that creates both pressure and opportunity," he said.

Timeline

Summary

Who: DHL eCommerce, led by chief executive Pablo Ciano, with commentary from applied futurist Tom Cheesewright. The study covers 29,000 online shoppers and 5,800 e-commerce businesses, including business-to-consumer, business-to-business and hybrid sellers ranging from sole traders to large enterprises.

What: The fifth annual E-Commerce Trends Report, a 78-page study pairing shopper answers with business answers on the same questions across eight areas: the e-commerce landscape, cross-border shopping, cart abandonment, payments, product and logistics subscriptions, sustainability, AI, and delivery and returns. Headline gaps include 67% of shoppers abandoning carts over delivery against 52% of businesses recognising it, 63% of businesses selling on social against 45% of shoppers buying there, 72% app-first shoppers against 38% of businesses offering an app, and 54% shopper trust in seasonal offers against 77% of businesses believing they are trusted.

When: Fieldwork ran between December 15, 2025 and February 11, 2026. The report carries no cover date; the accompanying podcast episode is listed as available from August 2026, and DHL states figures are correct at the time of publishing.

Where: Twenty-nine countries for the shopper survey at 1,000 respondents each, and 28 countries for the business survey, spanning Asia Pacific, Europe, Latin America, the Middle East and North Africa, North America and Sub-Saharan Africa. Morocco is excluded from the business data for insufficient sample.

Why: The data quantifies where e-commerce marketing investment is aimed at channels, formats and promotional mechanics that shoppers report as less influential than sellers assume, and where fulfilment terms rather than creative or discounting determine whether traffic converts. For media buyers, publishers and retail marketers, the report supplies market-level and generational splits that complicate global averages, particularly on social platform mix, AI delegation and cross-border localisation.