RTL Group cuts 2025 profit outlook as TV ad market weakens

RTL Group revised its financial outlook for 2025 on November 18, 2025, reducing full-year adjusted EBITA guidance from approximately €780 million to €650 million. The Bertelsmann-owned media company attributed the downgrade to weaker television advertising markets in Germany and France, which failed to gain momentum during the second half of the year as initially anticipated.

The Luxembourg-based entertainment company reported revenue of €4,118 million for the first nine months of 2025, down 2.2 percent from €4,209 million during the same period in 2024. Third-quarter revenue remained stable at €1,337 million compared to €1,338 million in the previous year, according to the quarterly statement. Full-year revenue expectations were reduced to a range of €6.0 billion to €6.1 billion from previous guidance of approximately €6.45 billion.

Thomas Rabe, Chief Executive Officer of RTL Group, acknowledged challenging market conditions while emphasizing streaming performance. "The market environment remains challenging, with a reduction of TV advertising revenue in our core markets and an accelerated shift from linear TV to streaming," Rabe stated in the quarterly announcement. The German and French TV advertising markets did not recover in the second half as management anticipated, despite additional market share gains in Germany and strict cost management measures.

Traditional television advertising revenue declined as viewing patterns continued shifting toward streaming platforms. RTL Group expects TV advertising revenue in the second half of 2025 to decline by high single-digit percentages, a dramatic reversal from August 2025 guidance that projected 2 to 3 percent growth.

The streaming business demonstrated growth across all performance indicators. Revenue, paying subscribers, and viewing time continued trending positively despite broader market headwinds. RTL Group reached 7.6 million paying subscribers at the end of September 2025, representing progress toward an 8 million subscriber target by year-end.

The company reduced streaming start-up losses from €137 million in 2024 to approximately €50 million in 2025, more than halving these costs. Management maintains its target of achieving streaming profitability in 2026. Streaming revenue reached €403 million in 2024 compared to €283 million in 2023, with projections targeting approximately €750 million by 2026 and an expected 9 million subscribers.

RTL+ operates in Germany and Hungary while M6+ serves France. The services pursue aggressive growth strategies as European streaming adoption accelerates. Content spending per annum increased from €338 million in 2024 with targets approaching €500 million by 2026, supporting original programming development.

The financial revision reflects broader challenges across European television advertising markets. RTL Deutschland operates major free-TV channels including RTL Television and VOX alongside news channel ntv. Groupe M6 manages French television properties including the M6 channel, 6ter, and W9. Combined, these units generate substantial advertising revenue from traditional linear television broadcasting.

Rabe emphasized the company's medium-term financial targets remain unchanged despite short-term challenges. "Short-term challenges do not change our medium-term Adjusted EBITA target of €1 billion," he stated. The company bases this projection on strong market positions, streaming profitability from 2026 onwards, and anticipated synergies from the Sky Deutschland acquisition totaling €250 million.

RTL Group confirmed its acquisition of Sky Deutschland in June 2025 for €150 million. The transaction awaits regulatory approvals, after which management plans to integrate the business with RTL operations and realize targeted synergies. The combined entity would strengthen streaming capabilities across German-speaking markets where traditional TV viewership has declined substantially.

The company announced expectations for Total Group profit of approximately €1 billion for the full year. Dividend policy remains unchanged, with RTL Group planning to distribute at least 80 percent of adjusted full-year net result to shareholders.

Fremantle, RTL Group's content production arm, continues targeting an adjusted EBITA margin of 9 percent by 2026. The production company maintains medium-term revenue targets of €3 billion, including acquisitions of small and medium-sized production companies and partnerships with creative talent. Fremantle operates in 28 countries and produces more than 11,000 hours of programming annually for both RTL channels and external clients including Netflix and Amazon Prime Video.

The broader industry context shows traditional television advertising faces structural decline as viewing behavior shifts. Connected television advertising spending is projected to reach $33.35 billion in 2025 globally, with streaming TV advertising expected to surge 19.3 percent while linear TV faces 3.4 percent decline.

RTL Group's advertising technology infrastructure includes Ad Alliance in Germany and RTL AdAlliance for international sales. The platforms aggregate inventory across multiple channels and digital properties, competing with programmatic advertising platforms that have gained market share.

Management emphasized the company's readiness to capture growth when markets recover. "We are well positioned when the markets regain momentum," Rabe stated. The company maintains investments in artificial intelligence benefits alongside cost reduction programs targeting operational efficiency improvements.

Bertelsmann holds approximately 76.28 percent of RTL Group shares, with the remaining approximately 24 percent trading publicly on Luxembourg and Frankfurt stock exchanges. The stock is included in Germany's MDAX index as of March 2022.

Industry dynamics continue favoring streaming platforms over traditional television, particularly among younger demographics. RTL Group's dual strategy of maintaining traditional broadcasting while building streaming capabilities reflects widespread industry adaptation to changing consumption patterns.

The revised guidance represents a 16.7 percent reduction from previous expectations, demonstrating the magnitude of television advertising market weakness in core European territories. RTL Group operates in markets where streaming has overtaken traditional TV viewing, fundamentally altering the competitive landscape for advertising revenue.

Timeline

• November 18, 2025: RTL Group publishes Q3 2025 quarterly statement and revises full-year guidance
• September 2025: Company reaches 7.6 million paying streaming subscribers
• August 2025: RTL Group confirms TV ad revenue growth expectations of 2-3% for second half
• June 2025: RTL Group acquires Sky Deutschland for €150 million
• September 2024: Streaming surpasses traditional TV viewing in Germany
• June 2024: Nielsen data shows traditional TV losing ground to streaming

Summary

Who: RTL Group, Europe's leading entertainment company operating 52 television channels, six streaming services, and 40 radio stations, led by CEO Thomas Rabe. Bertelsmann owns 76.28 percent of the company.

What: RTL Group reduced its 2025 adjusted EBITA guidance from approximately €780 million to €650 million while cutting revenue expectations to €6.0-6.1 billion from €6.45 billion. The company reported 7.6 million streaming subscribers and reduced streaming losses to approximately €50 million.

When: The quarterly statement was published on November 18, 2025, covering the first nine months of 2025 from January through September. The revised guidance addresses full-year 2025 expectations.

Where: The financial revision primarily reflects market conditions in Germany and France, RTL Group's core advertising markets. The company operates streaming services in Germany, Hungary, France, and Luxembourg while maintaining television and radio operations across multiple European countries.

Why: Television advertising markets in Germany and France declined more severely than anticipated, with second-half TV ad revenue expected to fall by high single-digit percentages instead of growing 2-3 percent as previously forecast. The accelerated shift from linear television to streaming fundamentally altered advertising revenue patterns during 2025.