Advertising shifts from impressions to business outcomes in 2026

The advertising industry faces a fundamental reckoning in 2026. After years of focusing on reach and impressions, brands and agencies are demanding proof that campaigns deliver tangible business results rather than simply generating clicks and views.

On December 15, 2025, ExchangeWire published predictions from seven industry leaders who outlined how the advertising ecosystem will transform from impression-based buying to outcomes-focused measurement. The shift reflects mounting pressure on marketing budgets and the growing capability of AI systems to optimize campaigns for real business impact rather than proxy metrics.

Blake Seabrook, Country Manager UK at Readpeak, stated that "2026 is the year that attention becomes the number one metric." Seabrook predicted that "attentive reach and frequency will be what brands demand and how success is judged." The company positions native and contextual formats as premium routes for brands prioritizing privacy, quality, and engagement over traditional display advertising.

According to Seabrook, "when we think about attention, consumers focus on the content while display ads fight for it." Readpeak's data shows that "premium native brand stories, designed to match the look and feel of their host sites and placed alongside the stories publishers write, consistently outperform traditional formats."

Control over proprietary data determines competitive advantage

Freddie Turner, Managing Director EMEA at Chalice AI, emphasized that real outcomes require brands to maintain control over their data and measurement systems. Turner defined outcomes as "driving real-world business impact, not proxy metrics which often work against actual outcomes. Sales uplift, customer lifetime value, new-to-brand acquisition, store traffic. Not clicks dressed up as conversions."

Turner argued that "brands that win on real outcomes won't be the ones with the biggest budgets. They'll be the ones in control of what powers their media." This control, according to Turner, "starts upstream. Feeding platforms with proprietary models powered by first-party data: store performance, SKU profitability, retention signals."

The alternative, Turner warned, is "handing your competitive advantage to shared infrastructure." Turner predicted brands will increasingly use "inventory valuation. Pricing every impression based on your proprietary model, what it's worth to your business, before the bid happens."

Quality metrics face scrutiny amid performance demands

Mattia Fosci, CEO of Anonymised, identified a growing tension between quality considerations and outcome demands. Fosci predicted that "as the macroeconomic conditions falter, advertisers will more aggressively demand proof that their media investments are ROI-positive."

According to Fosci, "campaigns will shift towards lower-funnel metrics, and even branding channels, like CTV, will increasingly be asked to demonstrate performance. Sophisticated advertisers will question self-reported conversions and adopt a holistic approach to incrementality measurement."

Fosci noted that quality concerns will remain important "not as a goal in itself, but as a filter, a lens through which outcomes are assessed. Results coming from quality-less inventory will be questioned, inclusion lists will be tightened, and reports analysed more carefully."

The CEO predicted that "higher expectations will put pressure on margins, creating an incentive for agencies and vendors to find buying opportunities in lower bid-density environments."

AI platforms capture lower-funnel budgets

Tom Laband, Co-Founder and CEO of Adsquare, framed 2026 as a "ruthless War for the Intelligence Layer" where all ecosystem participants will "fight for control over the algorithms and data that drive superior performance; disintermediating of anyone who simply acts as a pipe."

Laband posed the central question: "Who has access to the best data and the most effective AI to execute?" According to Laband, "lower-funnel budget will be aggressively eaten by AI platforms. These solutions, due to their unmatched access to rich, proprietary intent data, are uniquely positioned to execute highly effective, automated advertising."

Laband stated that "the winner of the Intelligence War will be determined by accountability as the industry shifts entirely toward outcomes. Victory requires first access to rich conversion data to fuel the AI, and the ability to execute robust closed-loop measurement."

The LinkedIn post accompanying the ExchangeWire article showed Laband emphasizing three key points: "Less focus on 'cheap' reach. More focus on 'proven' outcomes. Proprietary AI & data as the ultimate competitive advantage."

Mobile in-app environments gain budget share

Stephen Upstone, CEO and Founder of LoopMe, declared that "the advertising industry has measured impressions for a decade while ignoring what matters: business outcomes." Upstone noted that "as we enter 2026, boards want clear ROI, and CMOs can no longer justify budgets with vanity metrics."

LoopMe's research shows that "85% of advertisers consider proprietary data and measurement capabilities critical in partner selection." Upstone highlighted that "the open web is particularly exposed, and as generative AI continues to disrupt search and web browsing, advertisers are realising web impressions were never a good proxy for outcomes."

According to Upstone, LoopMe's research also demonstrates that "45% of brands are shifting budgets to mobile in-app within 12 months, where engagement is higher and outcomes are measurable." Upstone concluded that "brands need partners who can prove business impact, not just deliver impressions."

Identity improvements enable outcome measurement

Fabrice Beer-Gabel, SVP Strategy & Partnerships at Intent IQ, focused on technical infrastructure improvements necessary for outcome-based measurement. Beer-Gabel stated that "in 2026, progress on outcome-based marketing will come from improving identity where it's been hardest to achieve - across ID-less environments like iOS, Safari, Chrome Web, MAID-restricted, and CTV ecosystems."

Beer-Gabel explained that "as the industry strengthens its ability to identify more real people in these privacy-safe user environments, advertisers will gain the visibility they've been missing: understanding who was reached, what media drove action, and how to optimise spend accordingly."

According to Beer-Gabel, the improvement represents progress rather than complete resolution: "It's not about closing the loop once and for all, but about tightening it - expanding the share of media that can be tied to verified outcomes. The more accurately and at scale we connect exposure to result, the closer we move to true accountability in advertising."

Company-specific definitions prevent standardization

Daniel Knapp, Chief Economist at IAB Europe, provided broader economic context for the outcomes discussion. Knapp noted that "in the last decade, 'outcomes' have resurfaced in advertising debates, often conflated with performance. Today reflects a deeper structural shift."

IAB Europe's analysis revealed that "we analysed the earnings calls of the 500 largest listed marketers, and outcome-related terms have surged by over 30% in 2025 in a quest to firmly connect marketing with top- or bottom-line business growth."

Knapp predicted that "in 2026, platform-based outcome machines will put urgency on the open web's development agenda to control more parameters and forge partnerships linking advertising to business KPIs. TV and video, more widely, will position toward outcomes, helping markets understand that outcomes happen across the 'funnel'."

Knapp also noted that "as pressure on agency FTE models mounts, shifting to outcome-based services injects new competitive dynamics."

The economist emphasized that standardization poses risks: "Yet for outcomes to deliver real impact, they require company-specific definitions. If brands don't do this hard work, they risk standardised 'cookie-cutter' outcomes determined by others that create diminishing returns and ultimately replicate the limits of impression-based buying."

Industry implications for marketing technology

The predictions signal several structural changes for the advertising technology ecosystem. The emphasis on proprietary data and measurement capabilities suggests increased investment in first-party data infrastructure and attribution systems. Brands maintaining control over their measurement logic will require different technology partnerships than those relying on platform-reported metrics.

The shift toward mobile in-app environments, where 45% of brands plan to increase spending within 12 months according to LoopMe's research, indicates reduced investment in open web inventory. This migration reflects both measurement capabilities and the impact of AI-powered search and browsing tools on traditional web traffic patterns.

Connected TV advertising faces new performance expectations. Fosci's observation that "even branding channels, like CTV, will increasingly be asked to demonstrate performance" suggests upper-funnel channels will adopt measurement standards previously reserved for direct response campaigns.

The attention metric emphasis represents a middle ground between impression counting and conversion tracking. Native advertising formats benefit from this shift, though Seabrook acknowledged that "native is still often misunderstood and folded into omnichannel setups without the specialist focus it deserves, while measurement and supply-chain transparency continue to lag behind."

Identity resolution improvements in privacy-restricted environments determine which advertising channels can support outcome measurement. Beer-Gabel's focus on iOS, Safari, Chrome Web, and CTV identity solutions highlights technical infrastructure gaps that currently prevent closed-loop attribution across significant portions of digital advertising inventory.

Platform control versus open ecosystem competition

The predictions reveal tension between walled garden platforms and the open advertising ecosystem. Laband's "War for the Intelligence Layer" framing suggests that platforms with proprietary intent data and automated optimization capabilities will capture lower-funnel budgets from third-party ad tech vendors.

Turner's emphasis on brands controlling their own "proprietary models powered by first-party data" positions advertiser-owned infrastructure as a counterweight to platform dominance. This approach requires brands to develop sophisticated measurement and optimization capabilities rather than relying on platform-provided tools.

Upstone's observation that "with AI now able to model complex attribution and optimise toward real outcomes in real-time" indicates that machine learning capabilities have reached a threshold where outcome-based optimization becomes practical at scale. The 85% of advertisers considering "proprietary data and measurement capabilities critical in partner selection" demonstrates market demand for these advanced measurement systems.

Knapp's finding that outcome-related terms increased over 30% in marketer earnings calls during 2025 shows the shift extends beyond advertising technology discussions into boardroom-level business strategy. This executive attention raises stakes for proving marketing effectiveness and threatens budgets that cannot demonstrate clear business impact.

Measurement standardization challenges

The industry faces coordination problems in defining and measuring outcomes. Knapp's warning that brands risk "standardised 'cookie-cutter' outcomes determined by others that create diminishing returns" highlights the tension between scalable measurement standards and company-specific business objectives.

Different business models require different outcome definitions. E-commerce companies optimize for immediate sales, subscription services for customer lifetime value, and physical retailers for store traffic. Platform-provided outcome measurement systems may not align with these varied business objectives.

Fosci's prediction that "sophisticated advertisers will question self-reported conversions and adopt a holistic approach to incrementality measurement" suggests growing scrutiny of platform-reported results. Third-party measurement and incrementality testing add costs but provide validation that platform optimization actually drives incremental business results rather than simply capturing existing demand.

The shift from impression buying to outcome measurement also changes how inventory is valued. Turner's concept of "pricing every impression based on your proprietary model, what it's worth to your business, before the bid happens" requires real-time valuation models that incorporate business-specific data unavailable to sellers or intermediaries.

Agency and vendor implications

The outcome focus affects agency business models and vendor positioning. Knapp noted that "as pressure on agency FTE models mounts, shifting to outcome-based services injects new competitive dynamics." Outcome-based compensation ties agency revenue to campaign results rather than media spending or fixed fees.

Fosci's observation that "higher expectations will put pressure on margins, creating an incentive for agencies and vendors to find buying opportunities in lower bid-density environments" suggests the outcome shift will change inventory procurement strategies. Low-competition inventory environments may deliver better performance even if individual impression quality seems lower.

The emphasis on proprietary data and measurement capabilities favors vendors with specialized measurement technology. Upstone's finding that 85% of advertisers prioritize "proprietary data and measurement capabilities" in partner selection suggests vendors without advanced attribution systems will lose business regardless of inventory access or creative capabilities.

Laband's assertion that "if you can't back your performance claims with irrefutable proof of outcomes, your solution will be replaced by an autonomous intelligence layer that can" sets a high bar for vendor accountability. Third-party measurement, incrementality testing, and transparent reporting become competitive requirements rather than optional features.

Timeline

• December 15, 2025: ExchangeWire publishes industry predictions for outcomes-based advertising in 2026
• 2025: Outcome-related terms surge over 30% in earnings calls of 500 largest marketers, per IAB Europe analysis
• 2026 prediction: Attention metrics become primary success measurement, replacing impression-based evaluation
• Within 12 months: 45% of brands plan to shift budgets to mobile in-app advertising, according to LoopMe research
• 2026 outlook: Platform-based outcome systems accelerate open web development agenda for measurement partnerships
• 2026 trend: AI platforms capture lower-funnel budgets through proprietary intent data and automated optimization

Summary

Who: Industry leaders including executives from Readpeak, Chalice AI, Anonymised, Adsquare, LoopMe, Intent IQ, and IAB Europe provided predictions for advertising industry transformation in 2026.

What: The advertising industry is shifting from impression-based measurement to outcomes-focused evaluation that demands proof of real business impact including sales uplift, customer lifetime value, and new customer acquisition rather than proxy metrics like clicks and reach.

When: ExchangeWire published the predictions on December 15, 2025, with experts forecasting that 2026 will mark the defining moment when outcome-based thinking becomes standard practice across the advertising ecosystem.

Where: The transformation affects all advertising channels including connected TV, mobile in-app, open web inventory, and native advertising formats, with particular emphasis on identity-limited environments like iOS, Safari, Chrome Web, and CTV platforms.

Why: Mounting pressure on marketing budgets, board-level demands for ROI justification, AI-driven optimization capabilities reaching practical thresholds, and the inability of CMOs to continue justifying spend with vanity metrics are driving the industry-wide shift toward measurable business outcomes.