Retail theft surges 93 percent since 2019, with rising violence concerns

In a comprehensive study released yesterday by the National Retail Federation (NRF), retailers reported an alarming 93% increase in shoplifting incidents in 2023 compared to pre-pandemic levels, along with escalating violence against store employees.

The study, conducted in partnership with the Loss Prevention Research Council and Sensormatic Solutions, reveals retailers now face an average of 177 shoplifting incidents per day, with some sectors experiencing over 1,000 daily incidents. According to David Johnston, NRF Vice President for Asset Protection and Retail Operations, the rising retail theft landscape has evolved significantly, requiring a coordinated response across multiple stakeholders.

The research, which surveyed senior loss prevention and security executives between June 10 and July 12, represents 164 retail brands accounting for $1.52 trillion in annual sales, or 30% of total retail sales in 2023. The participating brands span multiple sectors, including specialty retail, luxury retail, home improvement, mass merchandise, grocery, and pharmacy.

Violence has emerged as a critical concern, with 73% of surveyed retailers reporting that shoplifters demonstrate more aggression than a year ago. The problem has intensified significantly since 2019, with 91% of retailers noting increased violent behavior. Between 2022 and 2023, retailers tracking specific incidents reported a 42% increase in shoplifting incidents involving threats or violence, and a 39% rise in incidents involving weapons.

The surge in criminal activity has forced retailers to implement extensive security measures. According to the study, 76% of respondents acknowledged implementing security protocols that negatively impact the customer experience. These measures include adding uniformed security personnel and securing merchandise through various methods.

The impact extends beyond customer experience to workforce stability. According to the study, 93% of retailers report increased difficulty in hiring and retaining store employees in certain regions due to violence-related theft incidents. Even areas with lower violence rates face recruitment challenges, with 69% of retailers reporting hiring difficulties.

Organized retail crime (ORC) remains a growing threat, with 76% of retailers indicating ORC-related shoplifting has become more concerning over the past year. Retailers capable of tracking such incidents reported a 57% increase in ORC incidents from 2022 to 2023. The criminal operations have evolved beyond traditional shoplifting to include sophisticated schemes involving cargo theft, ecommerce fraud, and gift card manipulation.

The financial impact of these crimes poses a significant challenge. The study indicates a 90% increase in dollar losses due to shoplifting in 2023 compared to 2019. In response, 71% of retailers have increased their budgets for employee training related to workplace violence, while 62% have expanded training programs focused on loss prevention.

Dr. Read Hayes, Executive Director of the Loss Prevention Research Council, emphasized the complexity of the challenge: "Retail crime is a sophisticated challenge, with trends that continue to metamorphose. The retail industry is working in lockstep with the research community and solutions providers to develop, test and improve the next generation of asset protection tools and strategies."

The study highlights significant gaps in current reporting and enforcement mechanisms. According to the findings, 65% of retailers report less than half of theft incidents to law enforcement, citing limited law enforcement response (62%) and low dollar values below felony thresholds (56%) as primary reasons for underreporting.

Looking ahead, 94% of surveyed retailers believe federal legislation is necessary to combat organized retail crime effectively. The industry continues to advocate for the Combating Organized Retail Crime Act, which would enhance coordination between federal, state, and local law enforcement agencies.

Tony D'Onofrio, President of Sensormatic Solutions, stressed the importance of collaboration: "Retailers and solution providers must work together to build and drive technology that goes beyond thwarting theft in the moment to predicting it, so we can proactively lower the chance of violence by mitigating crime. Neither party can accomplish this feat alone."

The study reveals that Los Angeles, New York, and San Francisco/Oakland rank as the top three cities most affected by organized retail crime, followed by Houston and Chicago, demonstrating the nationwide scope of the challenge.