Ahrefs today published research showing Google's AI Overviews now correlate with a 58% reduction in click-through rates for top-ranking pages, nearly doubling the 34.5% decline the company documented in April 2025. The analysis examined 300,000 keywords using aggregated Google Search Console data from December 2025, comparing them against baseline measurements from December 2023 before AI Overviews launched.

According to the study methodology, Ahrefs selected 150,000 keywords with AI Overviews present and 150,000 informational keywords without the feature. The research team used desktop click-through rate data to calculate how AI Overview presence affects organic traffic patterns. Ryan Law, Director of Content Marketing at Ahrefs, and data analyst Xibeijia Guan conducted the analysis.

The December 2025 data reveals position one click-through rates for informational keywords dropped from 0.076 in December 2023 to 0.039 in December 2025. Keywords triggering AI Overviews experienced more severe declines, falling from 0.073 in December 2023 to just 0.016 in December 2025. These keywords did not trigger AI Overviews in December 2023, before the feature's widespread rollout.

Using the decline rate for general informational keywords, Ahrefs calculated what AI Overview keyword click-through rates would have been without the feature's deployment. The forecasted rate of 0.037 compares against the actual rate of 0.016, producing the 58% reduction figure. The mathematical calculation involves multiplying December 2023's AI Overview keyword baseline by the proportional decline observed in general informational keywords, then comparing that forecast against actual December 2025 performance.

The research documents a dramatic acceleration in traffic losses since Ahrefs' previous study. Google's AI Overviews reduced clicks to top-ranking content by 34.5%, despite Google's statements to the contrary, the April 2025 study found. The worsening impact appears consistent with broader industry trends showing continued deterioration in organic search traffic as AI features expand.

Independent research from multiple organizations corroborates Ahrefs' findings. Seer Interactive documented organic click-through rates declining between 49.4% to 65.2% when AI Overviews appear in search results. Authoritas measured a 47.5% reduction in organic clicks. The Daily Mail reported particularly severe impacts, with click-through rates falling 80-90% lower when AI summaries appear.

Law wrote in the report that "for every 100 clicks you could historically earn for a top-ranking page, Google now 'keeps' 58." The research team noted this represents another significant drop in click-through rates compared to their previous findings. The study emphasizes that AI Overviews join a long progression of search features helping users resolve queries without leaving Google, including Local Pack, Top Stories, and Featured Snippets.

The concept of zero-click searches has been growing for a long time, as multiple search features increasingly answer user questions directly within results pages. Cloudflare CEO Matthew Prince warned in May 2025 that content scraping ratios had deteriorated from one visitor per six pages scraped six months earlier to one visitor per 15 pages scraped, illustrating how platforms extract content value without directing proportional traffic to original sources.

Ahrefs examined AI Overviews appearing in positions beyond the top result to understand their impact across the entire search results page. The analysis revealed that approximately 9% of AI Overviews appear outside position one. These lower-positioned AI summaries continue reducing organic click-through rates, though in less dramatic terms given the already low baseline click-through rates for positions two through ten.

Position two content experiences a 50.8% click-through rate reduction when AI Overviews appear. Position three faces 46.4% lower clicks, while position four shows 38.8% decreases. Fifth position results see 32.6% fewer clicks, and sixth position experiences 30.5% reductions. Positions seven through nine show click-through rate impacts ranging from 19.4% to 29.7%.

The research arrives as Google expanded AI Overview features throughout 2025, deploying the summaries to 200 countries and 40 languages by May. The company introduced AI Mode in March 2025, providing conversational interfaces for complex multi-turn questions. Google began testing seamless AI Mode integration through AI Overviewson mobile devices globally in December 2025.

During Alphabet's second quarter 2025 earnings call, executives disclosed that AI Overviews drive more than 10% additional queries globally for the types of searches displaying them. Nick Fox, Senior Vice President of Knowledge & Information at Google, stated the growth "continues to increase over time as people see that Search can help with even more of their questions."

Google maintains that clicks from AI Overviews deliver superior engagement quality despite reduced volume. John Mueller, Google Search Advocate, stated in July 2025 that "when people click to a website from search results pages with AI Overviews, these clicks are of higher quality, where users are more likely to spend more time on the site." Company representatives argue that users arriving from AI summaries demonstrate higher intent than traditional search visitors.

Research tracking 70 users across eight search tasks found that while 88% clicked "show more" to expand AI Overviews, the median scroll depth reached only 30% of the summaries. Most users never consume content beyond the first third of AI-generated answers. The study revealed that when users leave Google after viewing AI Overviews, community platforms like Reddit and YouTube receive disproportionate shares of remaining clicks.

Publisher traffic patterns reflect the compounding effects of AI features. News publishers lost half their Google search traffic in two years, with traditional web search dropping from 51% of traffic in 2023 to just 27% in the fourth quarter of 2025. Google Discover, the personalized recommendation feed, now accounts for 67.51% of Google traffic to news organizations.

UK businesses experienced an 86% collapse in website traffic growth following Google's AI-powered search feature deployment, according to research from digital marketing agency Tank. Average monthly organic traffic growth across analyzed industries dropped to 3.7% from 26.3% the previous year, representing a decline of 22.6 percentage points.

The hospitality sector suffered the most severe impacts, recording negative growth of 6.7% in the 12 months following AI search deployment. Fashion and education industries experienced significant traffic losses. Information technology proved least affected, maintaining 2.1% growth compared to 2.7% the previous year.

Independent publishers filed formal antitrust complaints with the European Commission on June 30, 2025, alleging that Google's AI-powered search features caused "significant harm to publishers" in the form of traffic, readership and revenue loss. The complaints emerged months after the European Commission published preliminary findings that Alphabet may be violating the Digital Markets Act through preferential treatment of its own services in search results.

Travel content creators Dave Bouskill and Debra Corbeil experienced 90% traffic reduction after AI Overviews began reproducing their specialized knowledge about Canadian slang. Their situation exemplifies how AI systems extract value from niche expertise while eliminating incentives for users to visit original websites. The couple told Bloomberg in April 2025 they felt "betrayed" by Google's approach.

Zero-click searches now account for nearly 69% of Google queries as of May 2025, up from 56% when AI Overviews launched in May 2024, according to Similarweb research. The digital intelligence company's analysis demonstrated that generative AI chatbots drive 95-96% less referral traffic than traditional search results.

Google began introducing advertisements within AI Overviews for mobile users in the United States in October 2024. The company expanded AI Overview ads to 11 countries beyond the United States on December 19, 2025, including Australia, Canada, India, Indonesia, Kenya, Malaysia, New Zealand, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, and Singapore. Text and shopping ads from existing campaigns can now appear within or adjacent to AI-generated responses.

Adthena detected ads appearing inside AI Overview search results in just 13 instances out of 25,000 search engine results pages monitored, representing a frequency of 0.052 percent. The extremely low percentage suggests Google remains in early experimental phases with AI Overview advertising despite testing the capability for over one year.

Dan Taylor, VP of global ads at Google, revealed that more than 80% of Google's advertisers currently use some form of AI-powered search functionality. Taylor said AI Overviews have accumulated more than 2 billion monthly active users. People click and engage with AI Overview ads "at about the same rate" as traditional search ads, he noted.

The marketing implications extend beyond immediate traffic losses to fundamental questions about content production economics. Publishers report "dramatic drops in organic visibility and earnings" that threaten content production sustainability. Google Network advertising revenues, which include AdSense, AdMob, and Google Ad Manager, declined 1% year-over-year to $7.4 billion during the second quarter of 2025.

Law concluded in the research that "as of December 2025, AI Overviews reduce the organic click-through rate for position one content by 58%." The report characterizes this finding as "bleak" while noting it aligns with independent research from multiple organizations. The study emphasizes that regardless of opinions about AI Overview utility and value, "it seems categorically true that they siphon away the majority of the clicks once available to top-ranking pages."

The research methodology involved analyzing aggregated Google Search Console data rather than examining individual website performance. This approach provides representative data across millions of searches while protecting user privacy. The two-year time gap between baseline measurements allows for clearer comparison against pre-AI Overview conditions, as December 2024 occurred after the feature's widespread deployment.

Ahrefs noted that "assuming AI Overviews stay in this current form, this is also likely the highest the CTR will be." The report predicts further click reductions as novelty wears off and what Law termed "the law of shitty clickthroughs kicks in." This concept suggests that as users become accustomed to features, engagement typically declines over time.

The research raises questions about how Google's AI agent approach will change search fundamentally. Liz Reid, VP and head of Google Search, discussed how AI Overviews increase query volume while maintaining advertising revenue stability. Reid characterized AI's impact as "the most profound" transformation in her career at Google, surpassing even the mobile computing transition.

Search behavior transformation affects different content types unequally. Technical queries requiring detailed explanations maintain higher click-through rates compared to simple factual questions easily answered within AI Overviews. Health and financial topics categorized as "Your Money, Your Life" queries drive deeper reading behavior, with users scrolling further to validate information for consequential decisions.

Marketing professionals face substantial adjustments as AI search visitors demonstrate 4.4 times higher value compared to traditional organic search visitors when measured by conversion rates, according to Semrush research from June 2025. This disparity stems from AI systems providing comprehensive information during the research phase, meaning users arrive at websites already equipped with knowledge about options and value propositions.

The Ahrefs study documents a critical inflection point in search behavior patterns. Traffic losses compound as multiple AI features deploy simultaneously across Google's search surfaces. Traditional optimization approaches focused on securing top organic rankings provide diminishing returns compared to strategies emphasizing citation inclusion in AI summaries and feature snippet presence.

Content creators must balance multiple optimization objectives simultaneously: traditional ranking factor performance, AI Overview citation potential, feature snippet eligibility, Google Discover algorithmic preferences, and direct answer box suitability. This multi-dimensional optimization landscape increases complexity compared to previous eras when securing top organic rankings represented the primary objective.

The frequency of major core updates throughout 2024 and 2025 suggests Google may maintain an accelerated deployment schedule compared to historical patterns. The company implemented its third major core update of 2025 in December, continuing a pattern of regular algorithmic adjustments occurring approximately every three to four months.

Professional commentary on the situation emphasizes the need for adaptive optimization strategies. SEO specialist Dan Callis warned that Google could eventually eliminate all organic website listings in favor of AI-generated responses, coining the term "Zero Result SERP" to describe a scenario where search provides only AI-generated answers without traditional website links.

The research arrives as search marketing professionals document what industry analyst Darwin Santos termed "The Great Decoupling" - an unprecedented separation of search impressions from clicks. Websites now receive significantly more impressions while experiencing substantial click decreases, a pattern Martin Splitt, Google's Developer Advocate, acknowledged during a Warsaw event in June 2025.

The Ahrefs findings align with broader concerns about the balance between AI innovation and content creator sustainability. As search and AI platforms become more sophisticated at providing direct answers, the challenge of maintaining viable economic models for content creation intensifies. The shift requires marketers to optimize for featured snippets and AI answer integration while simultaneously building direct audience connections that bypass search intermediaries.

Timeline

Summary

Who: Ahrefs Director of Content Marketing Ryan Law and data analyst Xibeijia Guan conducted the research, while multiple independent organizations including Seer Interactive, Authoritas, and the Daily Mail reported corroborating findings about AI Overview impacts on organic traffic.

What: AI Overviews now correlate with a 58% reduction in click-through rates for top-ranking pages, up from 34.5% in April 2025, with position one click-through rates for AI Overview keywords dropping from 0.073 in December 2023 to 0.016 in December 2025. The research examined 300,000 keywords using aggregated Google Search Console data.

When: The research was published February 4, 2026, analyzing data from December 2025 compared against baseline measurements from December 2023 before AI Overviews' widespread rollout. The study follows Ahrefs' previous analysis from April 2025 that documented 34.5% click-through rate reductions.

Where: The impact affects organic search results globally across Google's platforms, with AI Overviews operating in 200 countries and 40 languages. The research examined desktop click-through rates across informational queries, with lower-positioned AI Overviews (positions 2-10) also showing significant click reduction effects ranging from 19.4% to 50.8%.

Why: AI Overviews join a progression of search features that answer user questions directly within results pages, reducing the need for clicks to external websites. The feature represents part of Google's transformation toward providing immediate answers rather than directing users to outside websites, fundamentally changing traffic patterns and content creator economics in ways that independent publishers have challenged through antitrust complaints.

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