Holiday spending expected to reach $890 per person in 2025 survey

Consumers plan to spend $890.49 per person on average this year on holiday gifts, food, decorations and other seasonal items, according to the National Retail Federation's annual consumer survey conducted by Prosper Insights & Analytics. The figure announced on October 16, 2025, represents the second-highest amount in the survey's 23-year history and falls just 1.3% below last year's record of $901.99.

The spending data emerges as retailers prepare for their most critical revenue period. September retail activity declined on a monthly basis as consumers preserved spending power ahead of the holiday season, with core retail sales down 0.49% month-over-month despite strong 5.72% year-over-year growth. This pattern suggests strategic consumer behavior entering the fourth quarter.

"Time and again, Americans prioritize spending on loved ones for holidays despite economic uncertainty," Katherine Cullen, NRF Vice President of Industry and Consumer Insights, stated in the announcement. "With more consumers planning to seek out sale events this year, retailers are prepared to deliver on deals and value to ensure consumers have everything they need to make the holiday special."

The survey, which polled 8,247 adult consumers between October 1 and October 7, carries a margin of error of plus or minus 1.1 percentage points. Nearly all U.S. adults, 91%, plan to celebrate winter holidays such as Christmas, Hanukkah or Kwanzaa this year, maintaining consistency with recent years.

Budget allocation follows specific patterns. Of the total spending, $627.93 will go toward gifts for family and friends. The remaining $262.56 covers seasonal items like food or candy, decorations and greeting cards. These figures demonstrate how households distribute holiday expenditures across different categories.

Shopping timeline patterns reveal early preparation remains popular. Forty-two percent of shoppers plan to begin browsing and buying for the holiday season before November. Among those starting early, 54% cite spreading out their budget as the primary reason, while 41% aim to avoid the stress of last-minute shopping. Despite early starts, the majority at 60% anticipate finishing shopping in December.

Tariff concerns dominate consumer consciousness this season. Eighty-five percent of holiday shoppers anticipate higher prices because of tariffs, according to the survey results. This economic pressure influences shopping behavior, with nearly two-thirds of consumers, 63%, planning to wait until Thanksgiving weekend to do most of their holiday shopping. This figure represents an increase from 59% last year, suggesting concentrated demand during specific promotional periods.

"Despite consumers' economic concerns, the winter holidays remain an important occasion to celebrate with loved ones," Phil Rist, Prosper Executive Vice President of Strategy, noted in the announcement. "This is particularly true for those families with children who are expected to increase their gift budgets by more than $30 on average."

Shopping destination preferences span multiple channels. Online continues as the top holiday shopping destination, with 55% planning to make purchases digitally. Physical retail maintains substantial appeal, with grocery stores attracting 46% of shoppers, department stores 44%, and discount stores 42%. These multi-channel patterns reflect how consumers navigate both digital and physical retail environments during peak shopping periods.

Last year's research showed 80% of holiday shoppers preferred physical stores for their purchases, valuing immediate product availability and tactile experiences. The current survey's findings suggest online shopping has gained ground, though physical retail remains significant.

Consumer gift preferences follow clear patterns. Gift cards lead at 50%, followed by clothing or accessories at 46%, books and other media at 27%, personal care or beauty items at 23%, and electronics at 22%. These categories represent the most desired items consumers hope to receive during the holiday season.

The spending data carries implications for the marketing sector. Retail media networks are projected to capture approximately 20% of total global advertising revenue by 2030, exceeding $300 billion. The concentration of consumer spending during holiday periods makes fourth-quarter planning critical for retailers and advertisers.

Fourth-quarter revenue represents disproportionate annual contributions for retail businesses. November and December typically generate significant sales and profit, making consumer spending patterns during these months particularly relevant for forecasting and budget allocation decisions. The NRF survey provides quantitative evidence supporting strategic planning.

Commerce media platforms have expanded their measurement capabilities to connect advertising exposure to purchase behavior across both online and offline channels. As consumer spending concentrates during Thanksgiving weekend and throughout December, retailers deploy sophisticated attribution technologies to measure campaign effectiveness.

The tariff concerns reflected in the survey align with broader economic pressures affecting retail sectors. Earlier this year, the Interactive Advertising Bureau lowered 2025 advertising forecasts to 5.7% growth, citing tariff impacts on automotive, retail, and consumer electronics sectors. These macroeconomic factors influence both consumer behavior and marketing investment decisions.

Digital advertising platforms have responded to holiday shopping patterns with enhanced capabilities. Amazon's advertising revenue reached $17.3 billion in the fourth quarter of 2024, demonstrating the financial significance of holiday shopping periods for advertising-supported platforms. Similar growth patterns appear across retail media operators, where fourth-quarter performance exceeded expectations.

The survey results indicate families with children will increase their gift budgets by more than $30 on average compared to other consumer groups. This demographic variance suggests marketers may benefit from tailored approaches targeting different household compositions during the holiday season.

Shopping behavior during 2025 reflects adaptation to economic uncertainty. While overall spending remains near record levels, consumers demonstrate price sensitivity through their focus on sale events and strategic timing around promotional periods. The 63% of shoppers waiting until Thanksgiving weekend represents a 4-percentage-point increase from last year, suggesting promotional events carry greater weight in purchase decisions.

The National Retail Federation, based in Washington, D.C., serves as the leading authority and voice for the retail industry. The organization provides data on consumer behavior and spending for key periods throughout the year. Retail represents the nation's largest private-sector employer, contributing $5.3 trillion to annual GDP and supporting more than 55 million working Americans.

Prosper Insights & Analytics conducts the annual survey, operating as a global leader in consumer intent data serving financial services, marketing technology, and retail industries. The firm integrates economic, behavioral and attitudinal data to help companies predict consumers' future behavior and optimize marketing efforts.

The second-highest spending figure in the survey's history occurs against a backdrop of economic uncertainty and tariff concerns. Yet consumers maintain their commitment to holiday celebrations, with spending levels remaining within 1.3% of last year's record. This resilience demonstrates how holiday traditions persist despite shifting economic conditions.

Marketing professionals observe these patterns to inform budget allocation and campaign timing. The concentration of shopping activity during specific periods—early November for some consumers, Thanksgiving weekend for most, and December for completion—requires coordinated planning across advertising channels and retail partnerships.

The survey's timing, conducted in early October, provides retailers with actionable intelligence ahead of critical shopping periods. This advance notice enables inventory planning, promotional strategy development, and marketing campaign preparation. The 23-year history of the survey offers longitudinal data for year-over-year comparison.

As the fourth quarter unfolds, the interplay between consumer spending patterns and marketing strategy becomes particularly significant. Retailers typically increase advertising expenditures ahead of holiday seasons to capture demand, while monitoring spending velocity indicators for ongoing budget decisions.

Timeline

• October 1-7, 2025 - National Retail Federation conducts annual consumer survey polling 8,247 adult consumers about holiday shopping plans
• October 9, 2025 - National Retail Federation releases September retail data showing core retail sales down 0.49% month-over-month as consumers preserve spending power before holidays
• October 16, 2025 - National Retail Federation announces holiday spending survey results showing consumers plan to spend $890.49 per person on average
• September 4, 2025 - Omdia research projects retail media networks will exceed $300 billion by 2030, capturing 20% of global ad revenue
• July 31, 2025 - Amazon reports Q2 advertising revenue of $15.7 billion, up 22% year-over-year
• February 5, 2025 - Criteo announces record profits as retail media drives fourth quarter growth, reaching $250 million milestone
• November 19, 2024 - Vibenomics research reveals 80% of holiday shoppers plan to make purchases in physical stores

Summary

Who: The National Retail Federation, in collaboration with Prosper Insights & Analytics, conducted the 23-year annual survey polling 8,247 adult consumers about their holiday shopping intentions and spending plans.

What: Consumers plan to spend $890.49 per person on average on holiday gifts, food, decorations and seasonal items—the second-highest amount in survey history. Of this total, $627.93 goes to gifts while $262.56 covers seasonal items. Eighty-five percent anticipate higher prices due to tariffs, and 63% plan to wait until Thanksgiving weekend for most shopping.

When: The survey was conducted October 1-7, 2025, with results announced October 16, 2025. Forty-two percent of shoppers plan to begin before November, while 60% anticipate finishing in December.

Where: The survey covers U.S. consumer holiday shopping behavior across multiple channels: 55% plan to shop online, 46% at grocery stores, 44% at department stores, and 42% at discount stores.

Why: Despite economic uncertainty and tariff concerns affecting 85% of consumers, Americans continue prioritizing holiday spending on loved ones. The data matters for marketing professionals because fourth-quarter holiday shopping generates disproportionate annual sales and profit, requiring strategic planning for advertising campaigns, inventory management, and promotional timing to capture concentrated consumer demand during November and December.