Marketing models challenged as Mixed Media Models fall short in measuring linear TV effectiveness

The marketing industry faces a measurement crisis as the debate over linear television versus streaming advertising intensifies, according to an Instagram discussion that began approximately 11 hours ago from an anonymous marketing professional. The conversation reveals fundamental challenges in how brands allocate budgets between traditional broadcast television and streaming platforms, with Mixed Media Models (MMMs) failing to capture linear TV's true effectiveness.

The original discussion emerged from the @digital_chadvertising Instagram profile, where an anonymous marketing executive posted: "I don't understand how streaming hasn't overtaken linear in revenue. No one under the age of 45 is watching linear so why is advertising there so important."

This initial observation sparked responses from multiple industry professionals, creating a real-time debate about attribution methodology failures and practical barriers maintaining linear television's dominance. The discussion thread shows authentic industry perspectives on measurement challenges affecting billion-dollar budget allocations.

Spending data reveals linear TV dominance despite viewing shifts

According to WPP Media's comprehensive September 2025 research, linear television continues to capture the majority of advertising spending despite declining viewership among younger demographics. Global television advertising revenue is projected to reach $169.1 billion in 2025, with linear TV maintaining 72.6% of total TV revenue at approximately $122 billion.

The spending disparity becomes more pronounced when examining efficiency metrics. According to research analyzing 224.2 billion TV advertising impressions, linear TV captures 67.5% of total TV ad spending compared to 32.5% for Connected TV, despite generating 86.9% of total TV ad impressions while accounting for only 54.2% of TV time spent.

Linear television oversaturation creates inefficiencies

The spending concentration in linear television has created significant oversaturation issues. According to iSpot's comprehensive analysis, linear TV reaches an average frequency of 26.5 exposures compared to 7.3 for Connected TV. This oversaturation leads to diminishing returns, with linear TV reaching peak effectiveness within 10 days of campaign launch, after which increased frequency yields minimal additional impact.

Connected TV demonstrates superior efficiency trajectories, maintaining steady effectiveness growth throughout campaign duration and surpassing linear TV's efficiency after 23 days. Top-performing brands recognize this disparity, allocating 23.7% of their impressions to CTV compared to an average of 17.4% for other advertisers.

Industry-specific spending patterns reveal strategic variations

Travel industry leads Connected TV adoption with 33.3% share of impressions, followed by home and real estate at 26.1%, and pharmaceutical and medical at 24.1%. Entertainment brands show the lowest CTV adoption at 7.6%, demonstrating significant variation in strategic approaches across sectors.

These allocation differences reflect varying measurement capabilities and attribution understanding across industries. Travel and pharmaceutical companies, with sophisticated performance tracking requirements, demonstrate higher Connected TV investment rates compared to entertainment brands that may rely more heavily on traditional awareness metrics.

Instagram discussion highlights measurement model failures

The conversation thread identifies critical gaps in attribution methodology. "Too many MMMs, which are used for channel investment decisions, favor Linear. In a lot of cases Linear is not as effective but these broken models support it because it's cheaper," the original poster noted, suggesting systematic measurement failures across the industry.

A subsequent response emphasized practical limitations maintaining linear television's dominance. "Live sports and news still the main reasons people go to linear TV," according to another participant, who added context about cord-cutting limitations: "if you wanna watch your local team, you kinda have to rely on the linear TV since ESPN minus won't even let you watch your local team because that shit is blacked out most of the time."

Global brand resistance to linear TV reduction

A marketing professional working at a global level provided context about transitioning away from linear television. "The brand I work on from a global level is trying so hard to peel the fingers off linear TV from the local markets, but they just won't let go," the respondent noted. The executive highlighted deal-making complexities, stating "Between the deals and the kickbacks and the bartering, there isn't another channel that offers the same as TV."

This resistance occurs despite spending inefficiencies. The Instagram conversation highlighted pricing disparities: "Streaming bought on a CPM where as linear is traded on ratings at much greater scale... although me thinks the broadcasters are not being totally honest on their linear viewership numbers."

Streaming growth projections indicate accelerating shift

Streaming TV advertising is expected to surge 19.3% while linear TV faces a 3.4% decline throughout 2025, according to GroupM's December 2024 forecast. Connected TV spending will reach $33.35 billion in 2025, with 72% of marketers planning increased programmatic investment.

CTV budget allocation is expected to double from 14% in 2023 to 28% in 2025, indicating accelerating adoption despite current linear TV spending dominance. Streaming platforms expanded their measurement capabilities significantly, with Netflix adding programmatic capabilities across multiple demand-side platforms.

Advanced measurement reveals streaming superiority

Duration-based measurement approaches demonstrate streaming television's value proposition more accurately than traditional impression-based metrics. Index Exchange's September 12, 2025, implementation of duration-based reporting shows how time-aware measurement values 30-second streaming slots appropriately compared to shorter placements.

Attention-based metrics from TVision reveal streaming content captures 64% attention compared to 59% for library content. Original streaming content demonstrates 8.5% higher attention rates than traditional programming, suggesting superior engagement quality despite lower spending allocations.

Cross-platform measurement infrastructure evolves

Campaign Manager 360's Netflix integration enables advertisers to monitor Netflix campaign performance alongside broader video strategies within unified platforms. Cross-Media Reach reporting incorporates Comscore data to provide comparative analysis between streaming and linear television campaigns.

VideoAmp's partnership with Warner Bros. Discovery achieved 14% incremental digital reach lift for traditionally linear buyers while maintaining overlap reach below 2.5%, demonstrating cross-platform optimization potential.

Demographic spending power influences allocation decisions

Age demographics significantly affect spending decisions despite viewing pattern changes. One Instagram respondent noted "My 63 year-old dad has more money to spend than I do, that's for sure," highlighting how purchasing power distribution affects media planning decisions.

This observation aligns with spending data showing linear television's continued dominance among higher-income older demographics, creating complex optimization challenges for brands seeking younger audiences while maintaining revenue from established customer bases.

Timeline

• 11 hours ago: Anonymous marketing executive initiates Instagram discussion on @digital_chadvertising profile questioning linear TV measurement effectiveness
• 10 hours ago: Industry participants respond highlighting live sports content barriers and local market resistance
• September 12, 2025: Index Exchange launches duration-based streaming TV measurement
• September 9, 2025: WPP Media releases updated Advertising in 2030 research
• August 17, 2025: TVision reports streaming attention patterns differ by content type
• July 29, 2025: VideoAmp and Warner Bros. Discovery announce multi-year measurement partnership
• March 27, 2025: iSpot unveils Outcomes at Scale attribution solution
• February 10, 2025: Campaign Manager 360 adds Netflix integration capabilities
• January 26, 2025: Research reveals optimal CTV and linear TV investment balance

Summary

Who: Marketing executives, media planners, and advertising technology companies grappling with measurement challenges across linear television and streaming platforms, including anonymous industry professionals sharing experiences through Instagram discussions.

What: Widespread debate over Mixed Media Model effectiveness in measuring linear television performance compared to streaming advertising, revealing systematic attribution failures affecting spending decisions where linear TV captures 67.5% of budget despite 32.5% Connected TV allocation generating superior efficiency metrics.

When: Discussion initiated approximately 11 hours ago while occurring amid broader industry transformation, with streaming TV advertising projected to surge 19.3% while linear TV faces 3.4% decline throughout 2025, despite maintaining $122 billion in revenue dominance.

Where: Global marketing industry spanning local markets resistant to linear TV reduction and streaming platforms expanding measurement capabilities, with spending concentration favoring linear television at 72.6% of total TV revenue despite viewing pattern shifts.

Why: Generational viewing habit shifts challenge traditional media planning approaches while measurement technology struggles to capture cross-platform attribution accurately, creating systematic biases toward linear television despite Connected TV demonstrating superior efficiency after 23-day campaign periods and 8.5% higher attention rates for original content.