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AI

ChatGPT could overtake Google search traffic by 2030

Industry analyst predicts decisive shift as AI reshapes marketing landscape.

Luis Rijo

• 7 min read
ChatGPT traffic projection shows potential to surpass Google by October 2030 based on Similarweb data analysis.
ChatGPT traffic projection shows potential to surpass Google by October 2030 based on Similarweb data analysis.

Growth advisor Kevin Indig's bold prediction that ChatGPT could potentially overtake Google's search traffic by 2030 has emerged as the latest flashpoint in an industry-wide transformation reshaping digital marketing fundamentals. The forecast, published June 18, 2025, comes as artificial intelligence fundamentally alters how consumers discover and engage with information online.

According to Indig's analysis, Google's AI Overviews inflate impressions while suffocating clicks, creating what he terms "visibility inflation" without corresponding website visitors. This phenomenon forces marketers to reconsider traditional success metrics that prioritize clicks over brand awareness and influence across multiple platforms.

Summary

Who: Kevin Indig, Growth Advisor, published analysis alongside research from Google, OpenAI, Ahrefs, Semrush, and other major search platforms documenting industry transformation

What: Prediction that ChatGPT could potentially overtake Google's search traffic by 2030, driven by AI Overviews creating visibility inflation while reducing clicks and ChatGPT's exponential user growth reaching 1 billion weekly searches

When: Analysis published June 18, 2025, with 2030 timeline projection based on current trends since ChatGPT's November 2022 launch and accelerating competitive dynamics throughout 2024-2025

Where: Global search ecosystem transformation affecting Google, ChatGPT, Reddit, YouTube, TikTok, and other platforms where users increasingly seek AI-powered information discovery and validation

Why: AI Overviews inflate impressions without generating corresponding clicks while ChatGPT demonstrates superior conversion rates (23x higher than organic traffic) and economic value (4.4x more valuable visitors), forcing fundamental shift from click-based to influence-based marketing strategies across multiple touchpoints

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2030 timeline reflects accelerating competitive dynamics

The 2030 projection builds upon rapid adoption patterns demonstrating ChatGPT's growing influence. OpenAI introduces shopping to ChatGPT with 1 billion weekly searches, representing unprecedented growth since the platform's November 2022 launch.

ChatGPT weekly active users expanded eight-fold from October 2023 to April 2025, reaching over 800 million users. This trajectory suggests sustained momentum that could challenge Google's historical dominance in information retrieval and task completion.

Internal strategy meetings at Google reveal mounting concerns about competitive pressure. Google faces ChatGPT challenge as company executives confront the possibility that ChatGPT might become synonymous with artificial intelligence, similar to Google's dominance in search. During a December 18, 2024 strategy session, Google CEO Sundar Pichai described 2025 as "critical" for countering this emerging threat.

The competitive landscape has transformed dramatically since ChatGPT's debut. OpenAI, valued at $157 billion following significant Microsoft investment, announced plans in July 2024 to develop its own search engine. This move represents a direct challenge to Google's core business, which generated more than $198 billion in revenue during 2024.

Traffic quality metrics support transition hypothesis

Research supporting the 2030 prediction extends beyond volume considerations to include conversion performance. Ahrefs study finds AI search visitors convert 23x higher than organic traffic, with artificial intelligence-powered search platforms driving conversions at dramatically superior rates compared to traditional search engines.

The comprehensive analysis published June 16, 2025, reveals that AI search traffic accounts for just 0.5% of total website visits yet generates 12.1% of all signups. These findings challenge traditional assumptions about traffic quality and suggest that AI-mediated search attracts users with higher purchase intent.

AI search visitors worth 4.4x more than traditional organic traffic, according to June 2025 research projecting that AI channels could drive economic value equal to traditional search by late 2027. Digital marketing and SEO-related topics may start generating more visitors from AI search than traditional search by early 2028, though this timeline could accelerate if Google implements AI Mode as the default experience.

Current search behavior patterns demonstrate shift

User engagement data reveals fundamental changes in information consumption patterns. Most users only read top third of Google AI Overviews, with comprehensive research published May 12, 2025, tracking 70 users across eight search tasks.

The study documents that 88% of users clicked "show more" to expand truncated AI Overviews, yet median scroll depth reached only 30%. This behavior suggests users receive sufficient information from AI-generated summaries without requiring additional clicks to external websites.

Social proof platforms particularly benefit from these behavioral changes. Community links receive disproportionate traffic shares when users leave search engine results pages after viewing AI Overviews. Search engines rank Reddit as 6th most searched term globally, indicating users actively seek human perspectives to validate AI-generated information.

Publisher revenue model faces disruption

The transition toward AI-dominated search creates significant challenges for content creators and publishers dependent on Google traffic. Google AI overviews cut traffic by 34% as publishers demand action, according to Ahrefs research analyzing 300,000 keywords and directly contradicting Google CEO claims about improved click-through rates.

Publishers report substantial session declines and programmatic advertising revenue reductions. Google's AI search overhaul decimates website traffic as independent website owners face existential crises with many reporting traffic declines of 70% or more following AI Overview implementations.

Google's shift away from web traffic signals a strategic pivot away from the company's traditional role of directing traffic to external websites. Senior Google executives confirmed this approach during March 2025 statements, with Head of Search Elizabeth Reid acknowledging that the iconic Google search bar will become "less prominent over time."

Technical infrastructure supports competitive landscape

Platform improvements demonstrate sustained investment in AI search capabilities. ChatGPT adds UTM parameters to more links for better analytics tracking, addressing measurement gaps that previously hindered accurate traffic attribution from AI interfaces.

The enhancement, announced June 13, 2025, resolves longstanding issues where links from ChatGPT's "More" section appeared as direct traffic in analytics platforms. Marketing professionals increasingly require accurate attribution data to understand traffic sources and optimize digital strategies as AI search interfaces reshape content discovery.

Google AI Mode now counts toward Search Console totals, with integration creating complexity for search performance measurement. Marketing professionals must adapt analytical approaches to account for aggregated reporting that combines multiple search features within unified metrics.

Marketing strategies require fundamental revision

The projected timeline toward 2030 necessitates immediate strategic adjustments across marketing organizations. Indig's analysis emphasizes that success now requires presence across multiple touchpoints including Google, ChatGPT, Reddit, YouTube, and TikTok rather than optimizing individual search result positions.

AI-powered search transforms advertising landscape as Microsoft research reveals 53% higher purchase rates following user interaction with AI-powered search tools. Conversational search interactions compress traditional customer journeys by 40% fewer touchpoints compared to conventional search methods.

Traditional SEO strategies require substantial revision as AI-mediated search reduces direct website visits. Publishers must consider diversified traffic acquisition strategies beyond Google search dependence. Content creators face dual optimization requirements for both AI consumption and human readability.

Competition intensifies across multiple fronts

Google's response demonstrates recognition of the competitive threat. The company accelerates Gemini application development while expanding AI Overview deployment globally. Google sets $75 billion AI spending plan amid search monopoly challenges while facing antitrust battles that complicate aggressive competitive responses.

Search engines in 2025: ChatGPT and Google reshape search landscape as artificial intelligence features become increasingly prominent in information access patterns. The competition between established search providers and AI-focused startups drives innovation in result accuracy, source verification, and user interface design.

Google maintains its dominant market position currently, yet alternative AI search engines gain traction among specific user groups. Research indicates users particularly value ChatGPT Search for academic and research-oriented queries, while Google's AI Overviews sees broader general usage across demographic segments.

2030 projection depends on multiple variables

The timeline toward ChatGPT potentially overtaking Google's traffic depends on several critical factors. Regulatory outcomes from ongoing antitrust proceedings could constrain Google's competitive responses. The U.S. Department of Justice requested Google divest its Chrome browser division in November 2024, potentially limiting the company's ability to maintain search distribution advantages.

User adoption patterns will determine actual transition speeds. Current growth trajectories support the 2030 timeline, yet acceleration could occur if major platform changes increase AI search accessibility. Google's decision to implement AI Mode as the default search experience would significantly impact competitive dynamics.

Technical developments across competing platforms influence market positioning. Google begins placing ads in AI chatbot conversations as the company seeks to maintain advertising revenue streams within evolving search interfaces.

The 2030 prediction reflects broader industry transformation beyond individual platform competition. Marketing organizations must prepare for scenarios where influence across multiple AI-powered touchpoints becomes more valuable than optimizing for traditional search rankings. Organizations adapting earliest to these changes will likely maintain competitive advantages as user behavior continues evolving toward sophisticated, conversational search patterns.

Timeline

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