Retail imports forecast to slow as holiday inventory reaches stores

Import cargo volume at major U.S. container ports should see a typical end-of-year slowdown through November and December despite continuing tariff uncertainty, according to the Global Port Tracker report released on November 7, 2025, by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates. Most holiday merchandise has already reached stores or warehouses, allowing retailers to mitigate potential price impacts through strategic inventory management.

"We've spent most of the year worried about the impact of tariffs on both inflation and the supply chain but the holiday season is here and mitigation efforts appear to have paid off," Jonathan Gold, NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy, stated in the announcement. Store shelves remain well stocked while price effects have been minimized, largely due to retailers frontloading imports during periods of low or delayed tariff increases and absorbing costs themselves.

The report projects November volumes will reach 1.85 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units, marking a 14.4% decline compared to the previous year. December's forecast shows an even steeper drop to 1.75 million TEU, down 17.9% year-over-year. These would represent the slowest months since March 2023, when ports handled 1.62 million TEU.

Tariff policy creates planning challenges

A 20% "fentanyl" tariff on China will be reduced to 10% on November 10, according to the announcement. A twice-delayed significant increase in "reciprocal" tariffs on China set to take effect the same day has been delayed for a year. An existing 10% reciprocal tariff on China imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act remains in place. The Supreme Court heard arguments on Wednesday regarding the legality of tariffs under IEEPA.

Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, characterized the on-again, off-again tariff policy as creating difficult long-term planning conditions for importers and ocean carriers. "These conditions make market forecasting highly uncertain," Hackett stated in the report. The trade outlook projects a small decline in imports for 2025 compared with 2024, followed by a further, larger decline in the first quarter of 2026.

These developments occur as NRF forecasts that 2025 holiday sales will increase between 3.7% and 4.2% compared with 2024 to just over $1 trillion. Consumer spending plans show remarkable resilience despite economic pressures, with the organization projecting average spending of $890.49 per person on holiday gifts, food, decorations and seasonal items.

September volumes decline across major ports

U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.1 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units in September, the latest month for which final data is available. That figure was down 9.3% from August and down 7.4% year over year.

Ports have not yet reported numbers for October, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 1.99 million TEU, down 11.5% year over year. Following July's peak of 2.39 million TEU, November and December would be the slowest months of the year.

November and December traditionally see reduced activity, but the large year-over-year declines stem partly from elevated imports in late 2024 driven by concerns over port strikes. This year's tariff-driven frontloading also pulled up late-year cargo, creating a challenging comparison baseline.

The first half of 2025 totaled 12.53 million TEU, up 3.7% year over year. The full year is forecast at 24.9 million TEU, down 2.3% from 25.5 million TEU in 2024.

First quarter 2026 shows continued weakness

January 2026 is forecast at 1.98 million TEU, down 11.1% year over year. February projects to 1.85 million TEU, down 9%, while March shows 1.79 million TEU, down 16.7%. These projections reflect the delayed impact of tariff policies and the normalization of inventory levels following months of frontloading activity.

The data carries significant implications for retail media advertising strategies. Retail media networks are projected to capture approximately 20% of total global advertising revenue by 2030, exceeding $300 billion according to Omdia research. The concentration of consumer spending during holiday periods makes fourth-quarter planning critical for retailers and advertisers who must balance inventory availability with marketing investment.

Marketing implications of supply chain disruption

Tariff concerns have pushed 34% of shoppers to start holiday buying early, according to recent Wunderkind research, with 71% citing higher prices from tariffs as their top concern heading into Black Friday Cyber Monday 2025. This early shopping behavior creates challenges for marketers attempting to optimize campaign timing and budget allocation across the extended holiday season.

The retail industry's response to supply chain uncertainty demonstrates how physical inventory management directly influences digital advertising strategy. Commerce media platforms have expanded measurement capabilities to connect advertising exposure to purchase behavior across both online and offline channels. As consumer spending concentrates during Thanksgiving weekend and throughout December, retailers deploy sophisticated attribution technologies to measure campaign effectiveness.

Earlier this year, the Interactive Advertising Bureau lowered 2025 advertising forecasts to 5.7% growth, citing tariff impacts on automotive, retail, and consumer electronics sectors. These macroeconomic factors influence both consumer behavior and marketing investment decisions across the digital advertising ecosystem.

Global Port Tracker, which is produced for NRF by Hackett Associates, provides historical data and forecasts for U.S. ports including Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast. The report is available free to NRF retail members.

The National Retail Federation, headquartered in Washington, D.C., advocates for the retail industry through economic analysis and policy positions. Retail represents the nation's largest private-sector employer, contributing $5.3 trillion to annual GDP and supporting more than one in four U.S. jobs—55 million working Americans.

Timeline

• July 2025: U.S. ports handle peak volume of 2.39 million TEU for the year
• August 27, 2025: IAB Technology Laboratory declares Prebid modifications materially violate OpenRTB specification
• September 2025: U.S. ports handle 2.1 million TEU, down 7.4% year-over-year
• September 4, 2025: Omdia projects retail media will exceed $300 billion by 2030
• October 9, 2025: Core retail sales decline 0.49% month-over-month as consumers pause before holiday season
• October 16, 2025: NRF announces consumers plan to spend $890.49 per person on holiday items, second-highest on record
• October 27-28, 2025: Wunderkind survey reveals 34% of consumers began holiday shopping in October as 71% cite tariff concerns
• November 7, 2025: National Retail Federation releases Global Port Tracker projecting November-December slowdown
• November 10, 2025: China "fentanyl" tariff scheduled to be reduced from 20% to 10%
• November 2025 (projected): U.S. ports forecast to handle 1.85 million TEU, down 14.4% year-over-year
• December 2025 (projected): U.S. ports forecast to handle 1.75 million TEU, down 17.9% year-over-year, slowest month since March 2023

Summary

Who: The National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates released the Global Port Tracker report analyzing import cargo volume at major U.S. container ports. Jonathan Gold, NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy, and Ben Hackett, Hackett Associates Founder, provided analysis of the data and its implications for retailers and importers.

What: Import cargo volume is forecast to decline significantly in November and December 2025, with November projected at 1.85 million TEU (down 14.4% year-over-year) and December at 1.75 million TEU (down 17.9% year-over-year). The full year 2025 is forecast at 24.9 million TEU, down 2.3% from 2024's 25.5 million TEU. Store shelves remain well stocked despite tariff uncertainty, as retailers frontloaded imports earlier in the year.

When: The report was released on November 7, 2025, covering September's final data of 2.1 million TEU and projecting volumes through March 2026. A 20% "fentanyl" tariff on China will be reduced to 10% on November 10, while significant increases in "reciprocal" tariffs have been delayed for a year.

Where: The analysis covers major U.S. container ports including Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast; and Houston on the Gulf Coast.

Why: The import slowdown reflects typical seasonal patterns combined with the after-effects of tariff-driven frontloading earlier in 2025. Retailers took proactive steps to import merchandise during periods of low or delayed tariff increases, resulting in well-stocked inventory ahead of the holiday season. On-again, off-again tariff policy has created planning uncertainty for importers and ocean carriers, with delayed reciprocal tariff increases and ongoing legal challenges to tariff authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.