The Interactive Advertising Bureau projects US advertising spend will climb 9.5% in 2026, accelerated by major cyclical events and a decisive shift toward agentic AI systems capable of autonomous campaign execution, according to research released today.

The 2026 Outlook Study draws from insights provided by more than 200 brands and agency buyers surveyed by IAB. The forecast arrives as the advertising industry transitions from AI experimentation to scaled implementation across planning, activation, and measurement operations.

Digital channels continue expanding market share. Social media advertising is projected to grow 14.6%, while connected TV shows 13.8% expected growth and commerce media forecasts 12.1% gains, according to the study released on January 28.

Linear television faces continued decline, with spending expected to drop 1.7%. The forecast represents a slower contraction rate than previous years, cushioned by temporary viewership spikes from the Winter Olympics, FIFA World Cup, and US midterm elections, according to IAB's analysis.

Agentic AI dominates strategic priorities

Five of the six top areas commanding increased advertiser focus connect directly to artificial intelligence capabilities, reflecting how rapidly these technologies have evolved from emerging tools to fundamental industry infrastructure, the report states.

Two-thirds of advertisers now concentrate on agentic AI for ad buying and campaign execution, according to IAB's findings. The autonomous systems plan, activate, and optimize campaigns with speed and scale that manual workflows cannot match.

Cross-platform measurement has risen to 72% priority status among advertisers, up from 64% year-over-year, the study indicates. The increase reflects mounting pressure to connect AI-orchestrated implementation with measurable outcomes as automated decisioning systems proliferate across platforms.

Content optimized for AI-generated answers has become a priority for 73% of marketers, revealing how artificial intelligence shapes not just delivery mechanisms but the fundamental structure of creative and search visibility strategies, according to IAB data.

"AI is no longer a siloed initiative - it's the connective tissue that links media, measurement, creative, and customer experience," according to Chris Bruderle, Vice President of Industry Insights & Content Strategy at IAB. "But what's changing in 2026 is how AI is being deployed - not just as a tool but as an intelligent partner coordinating campaigns in real time."

The shift toward agentic execution marks a fundamental transformation in how campaigns operate. Advertising platforms deployed AI agents throughout late 2025, with systems now capable of autonomous troubleshooting, budget pacing, and audience optimization without constant human intervention.

Strategic priorities shift from acquisition to retention

Customer acquisition remains the top objective for 54% of buyers, yet that figure declined 10 percentage points year-over-year, according to IAB's survey data. Meanwhile, driving repeat purchases has grown to 25% of buyer priorities, nearly doubling from 13% in 2024.

The transition reflects maturing first-party data ecosystems and rising acquisition costs pushing advertisers toward retention-focused strategies, the report indicates. Retail media networks and CRM platforms now reach millions of known customers, enabling more efficient personalization and loyalty programs at scale.

"Brands are clearly rebalancing their growth strategies as acquisition costs rise and first-party data ecosystems mature," Bruderle stated. "AI - particularly agentic AI - is poised to enable marketers to activate those data assets more intelligently, driving personalization, loyalty, and repeat purchase at scale."

Commerce media, clean rooms, CRM onboarding, and loyalty programs have evolved into primary growth engines rather than support tactics for mid-size and large advertisers seeking predictable, profitable outcomes, according to IAB's analysis.

Buyers grapple with learning curve and consumer behavior shifts

Adapting to changing consumer habits now represents the top investment challenge for 44% of marketers, surpassing macroeconomic factors, the study shows. Understanding generative AI emerged as a major challenge for 38% of buyers, increasing 14 points from 2024.

The data underscores tension between strategic ambition and operational readiness. While advertisers express confidence in AI-powered channels, many organizations struggle with implementation barriers including data quality issues, system integration complexities, and cross-platform orchestration challenges.

The learning curve extends beyond technical capabilities to strategic application. As agentic systems automate campaign setup, targeting, and optimization functions, marketing teams must develop new skills focused on oversight, strategy, and creative direction rather than tactical execution.

Digital channels outpace traditional media

Total US advertising spend projected at 9.5% growth reflects strong performance across digital formats while traditional channels contract, according to IAB data. Social media's 14.6% projected expansion positions the channel as a primary growth driver, aligned with broader industry forecasts showing social media advertising reaching $277 billion globally in 2025.

Connected television continues capturing budget share from linear broadcasting, with 13.8% expected growth reflecting the medium's combination of television reach and digital targeting capabilities. Research indicates CTV's share of media budgets doubled from 14% in 2023 to 28% in 2025.

Commerce media's 12.1% projected growth reflects the channel's evolution into a performance-focused advertising category. Payment networks including Mastercard and PayPal launched commerce media networks throughout 2025, leveraging transaction data to deliver measurable return on ad spend.

Linear television's 1.7% decline represents slower contraction than recent years, temporarily stabilized by major cyclical events scheduled for 2026. The Winter Olympics and FIFA World Cup generate concentrated viewing periods that drive advertiser spending despite secular decline in traditional television consumption.

Cyclical events provide temporary linear TV relief

Major media events scheduled for 2026 create unique conditions buffering linear television from steeper declines, according to IAB analysis. The Winter Olympics, FIFA World Cup, and US midterm elections deliver concentrated viewership spikes that temporarily elevate advertiser demand for traditional broadcast inventory.

These cyclical patterns provide short-term stabilization but do not reverse fundamental shifts in viewing behavior. Streaming consumption continues displacing linear television, with Netflix, YouTube, and other streaming servicescapturing increasing shares of total viewing time across demographic segments.

The temporary stabilization creates planning complexity for advertisers balancing short-term event opportunities against long-term channel migration trends. Media buyers must allocate budgets across both traditional broadcast for major events and streaming platforms capturing everyday viewing consumption.

Industry infrastructure adapts to AI-driven execution

The transition toward agentic AI systems requires substantial infrastructure development across the advertising ecosystem. IAB Tech Lab released a comprehensive agentic roadmap in January 2026, extending OpenRTB and existing standards with modern protocols to enable autonomous campaign execution without fragmenting the industry through incompatible frameworks.

Multiple competing protocols emerged throughout 2025, including the Ad Context Protocol launched with six founding companies and various proprietary implementations from major platforms. The proliferation raised concerns about ecosystem fragmentation if different systems cannot communicate effectively.

Measurement standardization remains critical as AI systems execute campaigns autonomously. Advertisers require consistent frameworks for evaluating performance across platforms and validating that automated systems deliver expected outcomes while maintaining brand safety and efficiency standards.

Economic context and market conditions

The 9.5% growth forecast assumes relatively stable macroeconomic conditions, though economic uncertainty remains a significant concern for advertisers. Previous IAB research showed that in September 2025, the organization revised its 2025 forecast downward from 7.3% to 5.7% growth due to tariff concerns and economic pressures affecting automotive, retail, and consumer electronics sectors.

The 2026 projection represents improved outlook compared to the challenges that characterized much of 2025. However, buyer sentiment data indicates continued caution, with adaptation to changing consumer behavior now ranking as the primary investment challenge above macroeconomic factors.

Digital advertising revenue reached $258.6 billion in 2024, growing 14.9% year-over-year according to IAB and PwC analysis released in April 2025. The strong 2024 performance provides momentum heading into 2026, though growth rates moderate as the market matures.

Measurement and accountability pressures intensify

Cross-platform measurement's rise to 72% priority status reflects increasing pressure for accountability as advertising spend grows and automated systems proliferate, according to IAB data. Advertisers require consistent frameworks comparing performance across channels and validating AI-driven optimizations.

Commerce media measurement standardization efforts throughout 2025 established definitions and methodologies addressing fragmentation challenges. IAB and IAB Europe released comprehensive guidelines distinguishing incrementality measurement from attribution and return on ad spend calculations.

The emphasis on measurement connects directly to retention-focused strategies gaining priority among advertisers. Driving repeat purchases requires precise attribution linking advertising exposure to subsequent transactions across online and offline environments, capabilities that many platforms still developing.

Agentic AI systems executing campaigns autonomously create additional measurement requirements. Advertisers need visibility into how automated systems make decisions, which audiences they target, and what creative variations they deploy to maintain control over brand positioning and budget efficiency.

Looking ahead to 2026 implementation

The 2026 Outlook Study positions the coming year as a critical inflection point where AI transitions from experimental technology to operational infrastructure across the advertising industry. The shift from acquisition-focused to retention-driven strategies reflects maturing digital ecosystems enabling more sophisticated audience engagement.

"Our report shows that in this growth cycle, innovation and experimentation are firmly taking priority as the market is being structurally reimagined," according to David Cohen, CEO of IAB. "The encouraging news is that buyers are still looking at 2026 as a year of growth despite a lot of potentially destabilizing forces."

The industry faces substantial execution challenges as agentic systems scale. Organizations must develop new operational capabilities, establish governance frameworks for automated decision-making, and train teams on oversight rather than tactical execution skills.

Platform competition intensifies as major advertising systems including Google, Amazon, and multiple ad tech providersdeployed agentic capabilities throughout late 2025. The race to establish market positioning creates pressure for rapid deployment while maintaining quality and brand safety standards.

Timeline

Summary

Who: The Interactive Advertising Bureau surveyed more than 200 brands and agency buyers to assess 2026 advertising spending patterns, strategic priorities, and technology adoption trends across US markets.

What: IAB forecasts 9.5% year-over-year growth in US advertising spend for 2026, driven by digital channel expansion, major cyclical events, and rapid adoption of agentic AI systems. Social media advertising will grow 14.6%, connected TV 13.8%, and commerce media 12.1%, while linear television declines 1.7%. Five of six top advertiser priorities connect directly to AI capabilities, with two-thirds focusing on agentic systems for autonomous campaign execution.

When: The 2026 Outlook Study was released on January 28, 2026, analyzing projected spending and strategic priorities for the calendar year ahead based on survey data collected from advertisers during late 2025.

Where: The forecast applies to US advertising markets across all channels including social media, connected television, commerce media, search, display, and linear television. Digital channels represent the primary growth drivers while traditional formats contract.

Why: The projected growth reflects the advertising industry's transition from AI experimentation to scaled implementation of autonomous systems, combined with major cyclical events providing temporary linear television stabilization. Advertisers shift strategic focus from customer acquisition toward retention as first-party data ecosystems mature and AI systems enable more sophisticated audience engagement at scale. Cross-platform measurement rises in priority as automated systems proliferate, creating pressure for standardized accountability frameworks validating AI-driven campaign optimizations.

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