IAB unveils incrementality framework for commerce media budgets

The Interactive Advertising Bureau and IAB Europe published on September 9, 2025, a comprehensive framework addressing incrementality measurement in commerce media. The one-page document, titled "Demystifying Incrementality in Commerce Media," establishes definitions and methodologies for measuring the causal impact of marketing campaigns in the rapidly expanding commerce media sector.

Commerce media advertising expenditure is projected to exceed $150 billion across the United States and Europe, placing increased pressure on marketers to justify their media investments. The framework introduces incrementality as a measurement methodology that identifies additional business outcomes directly driven by campaigns, compared to what would have occurred without marketing activity.

The document distinguishes incrementality from related measurement approaches. Attribution methods, media-attributed return on ad spend, correlation analysis, pre/post testing, and historical performance analysis each provide directional insights but cannot isolate causal impact. Incrementality measurement determines whether campaigns created new demand or merely shifted existing demand across touchpoints.

Commerce marketers face specific questions the framework addresses. "What would have happened if I hadn't run this campaign or tactic?" represents the fundamental incrementality question. Budget allocation decisions depend on understanding: "What will happen if we spend more or less?"

Short-term outcomes measured through incrementality include unit volume, revenue, and sales increases. Long-term metrics encompass profit, customer lifetime value, and market share gains. The framework helps marketers understand sales lift beyond baseline performance, demand creation versus demand shifting, and the true role of marketing versus external factors like pricing or promotions.

The timing reflects broader industry standardization efforts. IAB Europe opened public comment on October 9, 2025, for updated Commerce Media Measurement Standards V2, building upon April 2024's initial retail media standards. These updated frameworks incorporate 17 months of industry feedback and expand coverage to quick commerce environments.

Measurement standardization emerged as a critical priority for the sector. Research from IAB Europe indicates 78% of stakeholders identify media measurement as requiring industry alignment, while 69% cite attribution standardization needs. The lack of consistent standards has limited investment confidence, with 70% of buyers identifying this gap as a barrier to increased spending.

European retail media achieved 22.1% growth in 2024, outpacing the broader advertising market's 6.1% expansion by nearly four times. Performance advertising budgets contributed 55% of shifted investment into commerce media channels, according to IAB Europe data.

The incrementality framework emerged from collaborative development involving IAB Europe's Retail & Commerce Media Committee and retailer stakeholders across European markets. Lauren Wakefield from the Interactive Advertising Bureau announced the initiative through IAB Europe's channels on September 9, 2025.

Technical specifications in the framework distinguish incrementality from common misconceptions. Correlation between sales increases and campaign timing does not establish causation; external factors including seasonality, promotions, and market dynamics can drive results independent of marketing activity. Pre/post testing without proper controls may overstate or understate true impact by failing to account for confounding variables.

The framework addresses measurement gaps that have complicated commerce media budget allocation decisions. Unlike attribution models that assign credit based on touchpoints, incrementality testing compares outcomes between exposed and unexposed groups to determine genuine impact. This experimental approach provides causal evidence rather than correlational signals.

Albert Heijn became the first retail media network to achieve certification under IAB Europe's measurement programme in September 2025. The certification process, conducted by independent auditor ABC, validated compliance with standardized measurement protocols for display and sponsored product formats across onsite properties.

Industry adoption of incrementality measurement has accelerated alongside platform developments. Google reduced incrementality testing budget requirements to $5,000 minimum during May 2025's Google Marketing Live, utilizing Bayesian methodology to deliver insights with substantially less data than traditional frequentist approaches.

Measurement technology company Kochava demonstrated in September 2025 research that marketing mix modeling revealed 35% higher incremental impact for TikTok campaigns compared to last-touch attribution. The study analyzed major North American mobile applications during the first quarter of 2025, highlighting measurement methodology's influence on perceived channel effectiveness.

Commerce media platforms have integrated incrementality analytics into operational frameworks. Innovid released retail media tools in July 2025 incorporating incrementality measurement alongside platform integration, self-service capabilities, and shopping-optimized creative formats for streamlined execution.

The framework's emphasis on causal measurement aligns with platform developments prioritizing outcome verification. Innovid launched pixel-free purchase attribution in June 2025, connecting television advertising exposures directly to sales outcomes across 18 billion annual transactions from Affinity Solutions. Beta testing demonstrated 25 times more attributed revenue and 4.3% incremental sales lift for quick-service restaurant campaigns.

Universal Ads established a $5 million incrementality fund in May 2025, providing e-commerce businesses resources to measure television advertising effectiveness through partnership with measurement specialist Measured. The programme offers up to $50,000 in credits and services for qualified merchants.

Marketing mix modeling has gained traction as a complementary approach to incrementality testing. Google released its Meridian platform in January 2025, employing Bayesian causal inference to combine prior knowledge with observed data. The open-source framework incorporates incrementality experiment results regardless of channel or methodology, calibrating models with real-world outcomes.

Prescient AI introduced in July 2025 what the company described as the first fundamentally new marketing mix model since the 1960s. The platform includes validation mechanisms testing incrementality studies, multi-touch attribution data, and other measurement approaches against actual business outcomes.

The framework acknowledges that historical performance analysis provides valuable context but cannot isolate what would have occurred without campaigns. This limitation has driven adoption of controlled experimental approaches where marketers deliberately withhold advertising from specific audiences or geographies to measure true incremental impact.

Amazon conducted incrementality testing in July 2025 by withdrawing completely from Google Shopping globally, triggering 30% cost-per-click declines across major markets. The month-long experiment served multiple purposes including margin optimization and potential negotiation leverage, demonstrating large-scale incrementality testing by major advertisers.

The IAB framework establishes foundational principles for commerce media measurement at a critical growth phase. Brands working with four to six retail media networks doubled from 10% to 24% in European markets during 2025, intensifying needs for comparable metrics across platforms. The standardization efforts address operational complexity created by this diversification.

Mastercard launched its commerce media network in October 2025, leveraging permissioned transaction data from 160 billion annual payments. The platform delivers up to 22 times return on ad spend for advertisers, positioning measurement capabilities as competitive differentiators in the expanding commerce media landscape.

Technical infrastructure developments support incrementality measurement implementation. IAB Tech Lab finalized OpenRTB specification updates for product listing ads in January 2025, facilitating standardized programmatic buying. Criteo became the first onsite retail media partner for Google Search Ads 360 in September 2025, enabling unified measurement across retail networks through advertiser's existing workflow.

The framework's publication precedes the November 14, 2025 deadline for industry feedback on Commerce Media Measurement Standards V2. IAB Europe's standardization initiatives address fragmentation that has limited sector potential compared to established digital advertising categories with mature measurement frameworks.

Industry projections indicate retail media will capture approximately $300 billion by 2030, representing 20% of global advertising revenue according to Omdia research. The incrementality framework provides methodological foundations for marketers navigating budget allocation across this expanding sector.

Timeline

• April 2024: IAB Europe releases initial Retail Media Measurement Standards
• January 2025: Google opens Meridian marketing mix model with Bayesian causal inference
• March 2025: IAB Europe publishes updated retail media definitions across European markets
• May 2025: Google cuts incrementality testing budget requirements to $5,000 minimum
• May 2025: Universal Ads unveils $5 million incrementality fund for e-commerce
• June 2025: Innovid launches pixel-free purchase attribution with incrementality metrics
• July 2025: Innovid unveils retail media tools including incrementality analytics
• July 2025: IAB Europe releases retail media best practice guides emphasizing measurement
• July 2025: Prescient AI unveils new marketing mix model with incrementality validation
• September 2025: IAB Europe updates measurement standards to Version 2
• September 9, 2025: IAB and IAB Europe release "Demystifying Incrementality in Commerce Media" framework
• September 2025: Albert Heijn earns first retail media certification under IAB Europe programme
• September 2025: Kochava study shows marketing mix modeling reveals 35% higher TikTok impact
• October 2025: IAB Europe opens public comment on Commerce Media Measurement Standards V2

Summary

Who: The Interactive Advertising Bureau and IAB Europe, in collaboration with the Retail & Commerce Media Committee, published the framework. Lauren Wakefield from IAB announced the initiative targeting commerce marketers, retailers, brands, and agencies across US and European markets.

What: A comprehensive one-page framework titled "Demystifying Incrementality in Commerce Media" that establishes definitions and methodologies for measuring the causal impact of marketing campaigns. The document distinguishes incrementality from attribution, media-attributed ROAS, correlation, pre/post testing, and historical performance analysis.

When: Published on September 9, 2025, the framework precedes the November 14, 2025 deadline for industry feedback on updated Commerce Media Measurement Standards V2. The timing aligns with commerce media spending approaching $150 billion across US and European markets.

Where: The framework applies globally but focuses on US and European commerce media markets. It was released through IAB Europe channels and supports the organization's broader standardization efforts across 31 European markets, complementing ongoing certification programmes and measurement standards development.

Why: Commerce media's explosive growth creates pressure on marketers to justify increasing budgets through demonstrable business outcomes. The framework addresses critical questions about campaign necessity and optimal spending levels. It helps marketers understand whether campaigns drive genuine demand creation versus demand shifting, distinguishing marketing impact from external factors like pricing and promotions.